Reading the Winds: Climate Anomalies and Smarter Commodity Bets
Can climate signals help investors make sharper moves in volatile commodity markets? This study explores how weather-related risk, specifically the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can be used to improve portfolio performance. We incorporate the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) into a Random Forest forecasting model to capture the complex, non-linear effects of climate anomalies on commodity returns -
