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The tenets of indirect inference in Bayesian models

This paper extends the application of Bayesian inference to probability distributions defined in terms of its quantile function. We describe the method of *indirect likelihood* to be used in the Bayesian models with sampling distributions which lack an explicit cumulative distribution function. We provide examples and demonstrate the equivalence of the "quantile-based" (indirect) likelihood to the

Microorganisms maintain C:N stoichiometric balance by regulating the priming effect in long-term fertilized soils

Labile carbon (C) inputs affect the soil carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratio and microbial stoichiometric homeostasis, which control the intensity and direction of the priming effect (PE). Here, we clarified how soil microorganisms regulate enzyme production and PE to maintain the C:N stoichiometric balance. Specifically, we conducted an incubation experiment by adding 13C-labeled glucose to four long-ter

Millennial-scale land-use changes and their effect on a small lake in southern Sweden based on pollen and lignin phenols

In this study, a sediment sequence from Lake Skottenesjön, southern Sweden was investigated to reconstruct the effect of forestry and land-use on erosion rates and delivery of organic and minerogenic matter to the lake. Catchment-scale vegetation changes during the last 1000 years were reconstructed quantitatively using pollen analysis and the Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm (LRA). Organic matt

Övervakning av fåglarnas populationsutveckling : Årsrapport för 2017

I denna rapport redovisas populationstrender för 208 svenska fågelarter för olika långa tidsperioder. Fåglarna har räknats vinter, vår och sommar enligt strikt standardiserade metoder. Sommarrespektive vinterpunktrutter har räknats sedan 1975, i huvudsak i södra Sverige. Standardrutterna räknas också på sommaren (sedan 1996) men täcker hela Sverige på ett representativt sätt. Nattaktiva fåglar harWe present the results of the Swedish Bird Survey, run by the Department of Biology, Lund University, as a part of the National Monitoring Programme of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The results for 2017 include data from: 575 winter point counts in 2016/2017 (42nd winter), of which 284 were carried out during the Christmas/New Year count, 223 summer point count routes (43rd year) an

Split N and P addition decreases straw mineralization and the priming effect of a paddy soil : a 100-day incubation experiment

The effect of mineral fertilization and its application pattern on microbial activity and the subsequent CO2 and CH4 emissions arising from soil organic matter (SOM) or added substrate remains unclear. We quantified the decomposition of 13C-labeled straw and the priming effect (PE) governed by the N and P fertilizer application pattern during a 100-day experiment in a flooded soil. Straw addition

Improving soil hydrological simulation under freeze–thaw conditions by considering soil deformation and its impact on soil hydrothermal properties

Traditional agricultural or eco-hydrological models usually ignore soil deformation and its impact on hydrothermal properties when simulating soil water, heat, and salt transport under freeze–thaw conditions. As a result, significant errors may occur when these models are used in areas with considerable frost heave, such as arid areas with shallow groundwater tables. In this study, the simultaneou

Forecasting the human and climate impacts on groundwater resources in the irrigated agricultural region of North China Plain

Climate change has caused significant impacts on water resource redistribution around the world and posed a great threat in the last several decades due to intensive human activities. The impacts of human water use and management on regional water resources remain unclear as they are intertwined with the impacts of climate change. In this study, we disentangled the impact of climate-induced human

Root trait plasticity and plant nutrient acquisition in phosphorus limited soil

To overcome soil nutrient limitation, many plants have developed complex nutrient acquisition strategies including altering root morphology, root hair formation or colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). The interactions of these strategies and their plasticity are, however, affected by soil nutrient status throughout plant growth. Such plasticity is decisive for plant phosphorus (P) a

Compound hazards of climate change, forestry, and other encroachments on winter pasturelands: a storyline approach in a forest reindeer herding community in Northern Sweden

The impacts of climate change on rural cultures and livelihoods depend on how the resulting complex biophysical processes may transform people’s land use practices. We argue that research can incorporate local concerns of compound hazards through deterministic rather than probabilistic approaches to better understand the multiple causations involved in such climate change impacts. We apply mixed

Making policy-relevant knowledge in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees : An analysis of reviewer comments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maintains a fine balance between scientific credibility and policy-relevance. The IPCC's review process plays an important role in ensuring that this takes place. This paper looks at the review process of the Summary for Policymakers of the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees (SR15) published in 2018. We apply a framework for the mak

Asymmetric changes in temperature in the Arctic during the Holocene based on a transient run with the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

The Arctic temperature changes are closely linked to midlatitude weather variability and extreme events, which has attracted much attention in recent decades. Syntheses of proxy data from poleward of 60g gN indicate that there was asymmetric cooling of-1.54 and-0.61gg C for the Atlantic Arctic and the Pacific Arctic during the Holocene, respectively. We also present a similar consistent cooling pa

Climate variability and anthropogenic impacts through a palaeo-morphological lens: an innovative microCT approach using Baltic Sea benthic foraminifera

Human-induced impacts are increasing pressure on coastal ecosystems, particularly on benthic ecosystems in high-latitude regions. It has become evident that three of the greatest marine environmental challenges related to anthropogenic activity are warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. The effect of these environmental changes on our uncertain future has created a need to understand the

Den dubbla vanmaktens logik : En studie om långvarig arbetslöshet och socialbidragstagande bland unga vuxna

Popular Abstract in Swedish Vid 1990-talets början drabbades Sverige av en omfattande lågkonjunktur. De unga som då skulle etableras på arbetsmarknaden var födda kring 1970-talets mitt. De fick erfara arbetslöshet och socialbidragstagande i avsevärt högre omfattning än någon tidigare generation i den moderna svenska välfärdsstaten. Trots ett förbättrat arbetsmarknadsläge fanns en grupp unga vuxna In the early 1990s a severe economic recession struck Sweden. The generation about to establish themselves on the labour market at this time were born in the mid seventies. They experienced unemployment and welfare dependency to a considerably higher extent than any previous generation in the modern Swedish welfare state. Despite the recovery of the Swedish economy a group of young adults, now in

Climatic control of the surge periodicity of an Icelandic outlet glacier

Surging outlet glaciers are important in draining large ice caps, but the mechanisms controlling surge periodicities are poorly known. We investigated a sediment sequence from the glacier-fed Lake Logurinn in eastern Iceland, and our unique annually resolved data, based on sedimentary varves, imply that Eyjabakkajokull, an outlet glacier of Vatnajokull, began surging about 2200 cal a BP (before 19

A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts

Climate warming in the Swedish sub-Arctic since 2000 has reached a level at which statistical analysis shows for the first time that current warming has exceeded that in the late 1930' s and early 1940' s, and has significantly crossed the 0 degrees C mean annual temperature threshold which causes many cryospheric and ecological impacts. The accelerating temperature increase trend has driven simil

Spring photosynthetic recovery of boreal Norway spruce under conditions of elevated [CO2] and air temperature

Accumulated carbon uptake, apparent quantum yield (AQY) and light-saturated net CO2 assimilation (A(sat)) were used to assess the responses of photosynthesis to environmental conditions during spring for three consecutive years. Whole-tree chambers were used to expose 40-year-old field-grown Norway spruce trees in northern Sweden to an elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, [CO2], of 700 mu mol C

Användarmedverkan

Användarmedverkan har de senaste åren fått ett allt större fokus i systemutvecklingsprojekt, detta för att organisationer har insett att de behöver involvera användarna för att skapa acceptans. Den här studien har undersökt användarmedverkan ur både kund- och konsultperspektiv, det vill säga att vi har genom kvantitativa och kvalitativa undersökningar tagit reda på hur kunder och konsulter vill bl

Avsmältningen av isen i Arktis : mätmetoder, orsaker och effekter

All over the world ice is melting as a result of the increased temperature. The sea ice at the poles is getting thinner and glaciers are retreating. The Arctic has been studied during hundreds of years but it was not until the 1970’s the sea ice extent could be surveyed properly with remote sensing. The most common method to investigate the sea ice extent is with passive microwave satellite sensor

Tundra cryogenic land surface processes and CO2-C balance in sub-Arctic alpine environment withstand winter and spring warming

Cryogenic land surface processes (CLSPs), such as cryoturbation, are currently active in landscapes covering 25% of our planet where they dictate key functions, such as carbon (C) cycling, and maintain patterned landscape features. While CLSPs are expected to diminish in the near future due to milder winters especially in the southern parts of the Arctic, the shifts in C cycling in these landscape