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This thesis investigates whether machine learning models outperform logistic regression in predicting M&A deal completion in Europe, with a particular focus on whether news sentiment, alongside deal characteristics, acquirer fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions, carries meaningful predictive power. Using European M&A transactions over 2015–2025, three models of Logistic Regression, R
This thesis investigates whether disclosed VaR backtesting results differ depending on whether they are based on actual P&L (APL) or hypothetical P&L (HPL). Since the two measures are based on different concepts, they can lead to different exception counts and different implied regulatory interpretations. The data are hand-collected from public reports for European Union (EU) and United Ki
This thesis examines how fiscal and monetary policy respond to one another at different levels of public debt across 16 advanced OECD economies, including the euro area, between 1999 and 2025. The study extends the reaction-function frameworks of Wolswijk (2026) and Afonso et al. (2019), estimating a fiscal reaction function and an augmented Taylor rule as fixed-effect panel regressions, with coun
This thesis explores how ESG scores relate to financial performance across different industries in the Nordic region over the period 2014 to 2025. Using panel regression analysis we assess whether the overall ESG score and each underlying pillar affects Return on Assets and Return on Equity. The results show no meaningful link between ESG ratings and Return on Assets while stronger overall ESG mea
This paper studies how local violence affects human capital accumulation in Colombia. I combine individual-level administrative records from the Saber 11 high-school exit exam with municipality-year measures of homicides and terrorist attacks from 1996 to 2019. The empirical strategy exploits within-municipality variation over time, controlling for municipality and year fixed effects, as well as s
This paper studies whether age-based eligibility for publicly funded influenza vaccination increases vaccine uptake among older adults and whether eligibility generates spillovers within couples. I use linked couple data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and exploit age-based eligibility thresholds at ages 60 and 65 in a regression discontinuity design. I find that
Parental health shocks may affect children not only through material constraints but also through psychological and developmental channels. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study examines how severe parental health shocks, including cancer, heart disease, stroke, depression, prolonged hospitalization, and death, affect offspring Big Five personality traits, educat
This thesis examines how organised crime is related to the mobilisation of syndicated infrastructure loans in Latin America and the Caribbean. It is motivated by the region’s persistent infrastructure deficit and by a gap between the infrastructure financing literature and organised crime literature. Using a country-year panel of 22 countries from 1997 to 2023, the study analyses whether the selec
This paper uses the 2018 expansion of eligible collateral for the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) by the People's Bank of China as a quasi-natural experiment. It examines whether changes in central bank collateral eligibility affect firms' debt structure. The results show that the MLF collateral expansion significantly increased the share of bond financing among firms issuing eligible b
Metal prices affect every sector of the global economy, and even modest disruptions to physical supply can impose substantial costs on manufacturers and commodity users. In metal futures markets, the premium that buyers pay to secure physical metal immediately rather than in three months, the convenience yield, spikes when supply chains tighten, creating a measurable cost of urgency that industria
The study evaluates whether motherhood penalties are larger in occupations with higher gender earnings gaps among childless individuals. The analysis is conducted on German microdata from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). First, 36 sub-major occupational groups are evaluated in regard to their non-child-related gender earnings gaps, which are used as a measure for their “women-hostility”. The occup
The persistent disparity between Saigon Jewelry Company Limited's gold prices and world gold prices has been a defining feature of the Vietnamese gold market since the establishment of the state monopoly regime, which became effective in May 2012 and remained in place until its removal in October 2025. Despite recent regulatory reforms, including the removal of the State Bank of Vietnam’s role
Asset pricing models are ultimately claims about the stochastic discount factor. A model that fits the cross-section of average returns well may nevertheless imply a pricing kernel that is theoretically inconsistent with observed Sharpe ratios, a violation of the Hansen- Jagannathan admissibility bound that conventional regression-based tests do not detect. This thesis exploits this distinction to
Financial markets rarely behave as the textbooks describe them, and oil markets during 2022-2026 are an extreme case: an invasion, a managed supply response, and a tariff-driven shock in close succession produced one of the most turbulent stretches in the modern history of WTI crude oil. Whether the tools researchers have relied on in calmer periods, including the belief that news sentiment carrie
Low-income households in the United States have historically participated less in presidential elections, contributing to a persistent socioeconomic turnout gap. A redistributive policy may help remedy this pattern of unequal participation. To investigate this, our study uses IPUMS CPS 1984-2022 data to examine whether increases in minimum wages are associated with voter turnout changes in the US.
This study examines the effect of the patient choice reform on nurse wages in Swedish primary care centres. Using Swedish register data and a difference-in-differences framework adapted to staggered treatment adoption, the analysis estimates whether the reform increased wages for nurses employed in municipalities with entry potential and who were already employed in primary care prior to the refor
Polymarket is an online prediction market where people trade contracts whose payoff depends on real-world outcomes: whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, who wins an election, or which team wins a match. Each contract starts from scratch. When a new market opens, whoever wants to trade immediately must accept the gap between the best available buying price and the best available selling
This thesis examines whether changes in global oil prices are associated with different trade responses depending on the geographical structure of trade relationships. Using a bilateral exporter-importer-year panel for 2014–2024, the analysis combines international trade data, geographical variables, and annual Brent crude oil prices. The empirical approach is based on PPML gravity models with exp
This thesis examines whether the European Union (EU) Non-Financial Reporting Directive (NFRD) is associated with stock price crash risk among EU listed non-financial firms. Using a firm-year panel covering 2014 to 2024, the analysis identifies likely NFRDexposed firms based on whether they had more than 500 employees in fiscal year 2017 and compares them with firms below the threshold using event-
