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Small data and conflicting information Bayesian Networks Decision analysis Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Recipe of a decision • Agents – decision makers • Their values • Decision alternatives • An idea of what is a g

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN_lecture_part2_sahlin.pdf - 2025-12-09

A mini-conference in Bayesian analysis at Lund University Room MA7, in the Maths annex building, Sölvegatan 20, Lund 20 April 2017 http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 Sponsored by BECC and COMPUTE http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ Program,

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/03/programus.pdf - 2025-12-09

Small data and conflicting information The importance of considering extreme and rare events in environmental management Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Now Train departs Time Now Train departs Time I leave the office

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/05/Sahlin_docent_final.pdf - 2025-12-09

PowerPoint-presentation KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHLIN OCH KNAGGÅRD Och en osäker framtid är vår Hur troligt är det att det regnar på fredag? 1. Hur stor är chansen att det händer? ____ % 2. Föreställ dig att du har ”testat det regnar” i flera försök – hur många gånger har du testat för att komma upp till det du nyss svarade? Regn på fredag (%) 0 25 50 75 100 KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHL

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2019/09/Och-en-os%C3%A4ker-framtid-%C3%A4r-v%C3%A5r-Sahlin-Knagg%C3%A5rd.pdf - 2025-12-09

Föreläsningar om risk – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Föreläsningar om risk The Swedish Society for Risk Sciences (Riskkollegiet) arrange seminars and workshops (usually in Swedish) on different places in Sweden. The most recent one was in Uppsala on the 4th of December.  Föreläsningarna filmades och ligger nu på vår yout

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/forelasningar-om-risk/ - 2025-12-09

Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019 Länk till denna sida på svenska We are curious to know how good people are in being uncertain. To test this, we asked participants of the running race Lundaloppet (Lund May 4th

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/lundaloppet-predictive-challenge-2019-eng/ - 2025-12-09

Nominera till Riskkollegiets juniora pris – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Nominera till Riskkollegiets juniora pris Alla med intresse för risk- och säkerhetsfrågor inbjuds nu att nominera kandidater till 2020 års pris ”The Swedish Risk Academy Award to a Young Researcher” Riskkollegiet är en ideell förening vars syfte är

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/nominera-till-riskkollegiets-juniora-pris/ - 2025-12-09

Finns det någon nytta med att vara osäker – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Finns det någon nytta med att vara osäker Detta är en fråga som jag ställde på Dalby bibliotek som en del i Lunds universitets forskarturné hösten 2018 . De drygt 20 åskådarna fick utstå att gissa, uttrycka deras osäkerhet och testa huruvida de har

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhet/ - 2025-12-09

DSC_0042 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis DSC_0042 October 4, 2019 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website Menu Close about this blog Accessibility statement Follow us

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/dsc_0042/ - 2025-12-09

Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? September 30, 2019 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/spring/ - 2025-12-09

Page 6 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Expanded View August 13, 2019 | host Graduate course: Interdisciplinary in Environmental Research This course on 3 credits is given as part of the Environmental Science Graduate Studies at Lund University and the research school ClimBEco.   … 0 Comments June 5, 2019 | host Graduate c

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/page/6/ - 2025-12-09

Experts judgements – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Experts judgements October 13, 2018 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website Menu Close about this blog Accessibility statement Follow us

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/qup/brett/ - 2025-12-09

Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 What does it mean to make predictions? Why is it advantageous, if not mandatory, to make predictions in terms of probability distributions? Is a prediction with a wide distribution automati

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/results-from-lundaloppet-predictive-challenge-2014/ - 2025-12-09

Riskförmiddag i Uppsala 4 december – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Riskförmiddag i Uppsala 4 december Riskkollegiet bjuder in till en förmiddag om risk den 4 december i Uppsala. Det är ett tillfälle att bekanta sig med olika sätt att se på risk. Riskförmiddag_Uppsala_Program November 28, 2019 host This entry was posted in

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/riskformiddag-i-uppsala-4-december/ - 2025-12-09

RISKUT2019 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis RISKUT2019 On August 22nd I (Ullrika) arranged together with Linda Kvarnlöf and Per Strömsjö a one day meeting about teaching risk. We named this meeting RISKUT as in risk utbildning (risk education). It was very stimulating and fun to meet people passionate about teaching risk b

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/riskut2019/ - 2025-12-09

The science of decision making in science – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis The science of decision making in science Jan 13th 2015 we had workshop on the science of decision making in research The purpose of the workshop was to share and discuss scientific methods to integrate decision problems into research. An ambition i

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/the-science-of-decision-making-in-science/ - 2025-12-09

The Uncertainty show – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis The Uncertainty show A version of our show about uncertainty is available online. The show takes about 30 minutes and targets kids from 8 and upwards. It is currently in Swedish.  How does it feel to be uncertain? November 8, 2019 host This entry was posted in Uncategor

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/the-uncertainty-show/ - 2025-12-09

Two aspects on reliability – epistemic risk and safety – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Two aspects on reliability – epistemic risk and safety Last week was devoted to reliability in two aspects. Niklas Vareman successfully defended his thesis on Epistemic Risk, which in one of his explanations of it is the risk of “missin

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/two-aspects-on-reliability-epistemic-risk-and-safety/ - 2025-12-09

Däggdjur – Sida 3 – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Arkiv för kategorin Däggdjur Sida 3 / 9 januari 20, 2025 | andreasnord Vem har bajsat här? Vad är det för djur som har lämnat spillningen på bilderna här ovan? Av vad jag kan se är det en grävling som har … Däggdjur Dj

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/category/daggdjur/page/3/ - 2025-12-09

Ekologi – Sida 3 – Fråga en Biolog Hoppa till huvudinnehåll Välkommen Svar Möt våra experter Sök Sök Stäng Meny Meny Fråga en Biolog Allt du någonsin undrat om hur naturen fungerar Arkiv för kategorin Ekologi Frågor om förhållanden mellan levande ting i naturen. Sida 3 / 40 juni 2, 2025 | andreasnord Om koltrastens bobygge Koltrastar tar mellan någonstans 6 till 10 dagar på sig att bygga sitt bo,

https://fragaenbiolog.blogg.lu.se/category/ekologi/page/3/ - 2025-12-09