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There is a growing interest in probabilistic numerical solutions to ordinary differential equations. In this paper, the maximum a posteriori estimate is studied under the class of ν times differentiable linear time-invariant Gauss–Markov priors, which can be computed with an iterated extended Kalman smoother. The maximum a posteriori estimate corresponds to an optimal interpolant in the reproducin

The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student-t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable whose variance provides information about the incurred integration error. Advant

In this paper, we propose a new framework for solving state estimation problems with an additional sparsity-promoting $L-1$-regularizer term. We first formulate such problems as minimization of the sum of linear or nonlinear quadratic error terms and an extra regularizer, and then present novel algorithms which solve the linear and nonlinear cases. The methods are based on a combination of the ite

This paper proposes a novel algorithm for target tracking with direction-of-arrival measurements, modeled by von Mises-Fisher distributions. The algorithm makes use of the assumed density framework with Gaussian distributions, in which the posterior probability density of the target state is approximated by a Gaussian density. A key component of this algorithm is that the proposed Bayesian model o

In this letter, we analyze certain student's t-filters for linear Gaussian systems with misspecified noise covariances. It is shown that under appropriate conditions, the filter both estimates the state and re-scales the noise covariance matrices in a Kullback-Leibler optimal fashion. If the noise covariances are misscaled by a common scalar, then the re-scaling is asymptotically exact. We also co

This letter proposes a new algorithm for Gaussian process classification based on posterior linearization (PL). In PL, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior density is obtained iteratively using the best possible linearization of the conditional mean of the labels and accounting for the linearization error. PL has some theoretical advantages over expectation propagation (EP): all calculated co

Owing to their millisecond-scale temporal resolution, magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) are well-suited tools to study dynamic functional connectivity between regions in the human brain. However, current techniques to estimate functional connectivity from MEG/EEG are based on a two-step approach; first, the MEG/EEG inverse problem is solved to estimate the source activi

This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary Gaussian process. Two methods are developed based on (1) taking the limit of statistical linear regression of the discretised process and (2) minimising an upper b

In this article, we propose an efficient method for solving analysis-l1-TV regularization problems with a multi-step alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) approach as the fast solver. Additionally, we apply it to a real-data magnetoen-cephalography (MEG) brain imaging problem as well as to signal reconstruction. In our approach, the inverse problem arising in MEG or signal reconstruct

We show how probabilistic numerics can be used to convert an initial value problem into a Gauss–Markov process parametrised by the dynamics of the initial value problem. Consequently, the often difficult problem of parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations is reduced to hyper-parameter estimation in Gauss–Markov regression, which tends to be considerably easier. The method’s relation

This article studies the maximum likelihood estimates of magnitude and scale parameters for a Gaussian process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type used to model a deterministic function that does not have to be a realisation of an Ornstein- Uhlenbeck process. Specifically, we derive explicit expressions for the limiting values of the maximum likelihood estimates as the number of observations increases. The

Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations compute posterior distributions over the solution of an initial value problem via Bayesian inference. In this paper, we leverage their probabilistic formulation to seamlessly include additional information as general likelihood terms. We show that second-order differential equations should be directly provided to the solver, inste

This paper is concerned with the estimation of unknown drift functions of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) from observations of their sample paths. We propose to formulate this as a non-parametric Gaussian process regression problem and use an Ito-Taylor expansion for approximating the SDE. To address the computational complexity problem of Gaussian process regression, we cast the model in

In this letter, we consider Gaussian approximations of the optimal importance density in sequential importance sampling for nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. The proposed method is based on generalized statistical linear regression and posterior linearization using conditional expectations. Simulation results show that the method outperforms the compared methods in terms of the effective

In this article, we address the problem of estimating the state and learning of the parameters in a linear dynamic system with generalized L 1 -regularization. Assuming a sparsity prior on the state, the joint state estimation and parameter learning problem is cast as an unconstrained optimization problem. However, when the dimensionality of state or parameters is large, memory requirements and co

In this paper, we develop a novel method for approximate continuous-discrete Bayesian filtering. The projection filtering framework is exploited to develop accurate approximations of posterior distributions within parametric classes of probability distributions. This is done by formulating an ordinary differential equation for the posterior distribution that has the prior as initial value and hits

In this paper, the connection between the Matérn kernel and scale mixtures of squared exponential kernels is explored. It is shown that the Matérn kernel can be approximated by a finite scale mixture of squared exponential kernels through a quadrature approximation which in turn allows for (i) state space approximations of the Matérn kernel for arbitrary smoothness parameters using established sta

In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process-based nonlinear, time-varying drift model for stochastic differential equations. In particular, we combine eigenfunction expansion of the Gaussian process’ covariance kernel in the spatial input variables with spectral decomposition in the time domain to obtain a reduced rank state space representation of the drift model, which avoids the growing comple

In this paper the issue of filtering and smoothing in continuous discrete time is studied when the state variable evolves in some submanifold of Euclidean space, which may not have the usual Lebesgue measure. Formal expressions for prediction and smoothing problems are reviewed, which agree with the classical results except that the formal adjoint of the generator is different in general. These re

Many problems in science and engineering involve estimating a dynamic signal from indirect measurements subject to noise, where points can either evolve in continuous time or in discrete time. These problems are often formalised as inference in probabilistic state-space models, which are also frequently assumed to be Markovian. For inferring the value of the signal at a particular point in time, m