MODELLING EXPERT JUDGEMENT INTO A BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK. A METHOD FOR CONSISTENT AND ROBUST DETERMINATION OF CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY TABLES
In project RASTEP (RApid Source TErm Prediction) a computerized tool for real time prediction of source terms at a nuclear power plant is developed. The tool consists of two modules where one is a Bayesian belief network (BBN). A BBN consists of connected nodes and each node has a defined conditional probability table (CPT), which contains the probabilities that a node is in its different states g